AFTER years of sluggish growth, Brisbane’s median house price is tipped to jump by 17 per cent in the next three years.
According to economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel’s latest Residential Property Prospects report, Brisbane’s median house price is about $440,000, only 2 per cent higher than it was at the same time last year.
The predicted increase would lift the median house price to about $514,800.
While the increase in the past year was low, and remains 11 per cent below the peak of the market in June 2010, it is the first annual increase in medians since 2009-10.
BIS Shrapnel senior manager Angie Zigomanis said Brisbane’s median house price had been affected in recent years by weak migration and population growth.
“Weak state economic conditions have also impacted on sentiment,” he said.
But he believed conditions were slowly starting to turn around.
Mr Zigomanis said house prices were still affordable and interest rates were low.
He said all the pieces were now falling into place for the beginning of an upturn, although confidence was still weak.
“However, similar to the Perth market, once it appears that the market has definitely bottomed, turnover will begin to increase as purchasers seek to enter the market ahead of any further price rises in increasing numbers,” he said.
Mr Zigomanis predicts a return to price growth in this new financial year, which will accelerate into 2014 and 2015.
“By the end of 2015-16 (financial year), rising interest rates will begin to impact on prices, but only after a forecast total rise of 17 per cent in the median house price over the three years to 2016, representing an average rise of 5.2 per cent per annum.”
Meanwhile, the latest RP Data-Rismark June Hedonic Home Value Index results out yesterday reveal that Brisbane’s median dwelling values (that includes houses and units) has risen by just 0.1 per cent in the past month.
According to RP Data research director Tim Lawless, while there is some volatility in the month-to-month data, the trend is much more indicative of an ongoing recovery in values. The figures show that the values were up 0.6 per cent year on year.
Mr Lawless said lower mortgage rates were starting to have a positive impact on the housing market, however current conditions were still far from what it had been like in 2009.